Accommodation and Food Services 47,494 11,332 16.5% Administrative and Support and Waste Management and Remediation Services 4,102 1,605 2.4% Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing and Hunting 995 292 1.0% Arts, Entertainment, and Recreation 8,708 3,259 11.3% Construction 5,990 2,664 2.9% Educational Services 5,603 3,451 2.0% Finance and Insurance 655 462 0.7% Health Care and Social Assistance 21,732 12,342 4.5% Information 1,548 957 1.1% Management of Companies and Enterprises 77 49 0.2% Manufacturing 6,066 4,205 2.0% Mining 28 21 1.2% Other Services (except Public Administration) 11,067 3,691 10.8% Professional, Scientific, and Technical Services 2,448 1,493 1.2% Public Administration 777 547 0.5% Real Estate and Rental and Leasing 1,660 772 2.9% Retail Trade 10,003 4,080 2.6% Transportation and Warehousing 2,230 1,304 1.7% Utilities 49 38 0.3% Wholesale Trade 2,247 1,381 1.7% All industries 133,478 53,946 3.9%

Note: EPHI losses are estimated UI claims associated with employer-provided health insurance.

Source: Author’s analysis of Washington Department of Labor UI claims?data?and Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages?data

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Table 2 also expresses total job losses in an industry as a share of that industry’s employment in Washington for the prior year, calculated using the most recent QCEW data for 2018Q4–2019Q3. To extend the analysis to other states, we apply this industry-specific job loss share to all other states’ industry-specific employment totals, and then proportionally scale these losses so that each state’s total job loss equals its statewide not-seasonally-adjusted total initial UI claims for the two weeks ending March 21 and March 28. These estimates therefore distribute state-specific UI claims to industries in a way that accounts for labor market data from the early and intense COVID-19 shock in Washington state and accounts for each state’s industry mix prior to the epidemic. Moreover, the calculation allows us to incorporate EPHI variation across industries when estimating the national share of workers at high risk of losing EPHI due to recent layoffs (Table 3).

Table 3

Estimated new UI claims and EPHI losses for the weeks ending March 21 and March 28, by industry

Industry Total job losses (UI initial claims) EPHI job losses Total job losses as a share of industry employment
Accommodation and Food Services 3,339,703 796,875 23.5%
Administrative and Support and Waste Management and Remediation Services 319,988 125,210 3.4%
Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing and Hunting 18,152 5,332 1.4%
Arts, Entertainment, and Recreation 437,215 163,605 16.3%
Construction 310,846 138,225 4.1%
Educational Services 367,195 226,211 2.9%
Finance and Insurance 60,648 42,756 1.0%
Health Care and Social Assistance 1,481,980 841,625 6.7%
Information 46,025 28,475 1.5%
Management of Companies and Enterprises 6,358 4,045 0.3%
Manufacturing 394,134 273,230 3.0%
Mining 9,769 7,293 1.4%
Other Services (except Public Administration) 727,891 242,751 15.8%
Professional, Scientific, and Technical Services 160,699 98,032 1.7%
Public Administration 49,039 34,537 0.6%
Real Estate and Rental and Leasing 92,519 43,037 4.0%
Retail Trade 596,202 243,163 3.8%
Transportation and Warehousing 156,686 91,621 2.5%
Utilities 2,946 2,272 0.4%
Wholesale Trade 144,374 88,746 2.4%
All industries 8,722,367 3,497,041 5.9%
Source: Author’s analysis of Washington Department of Labor UI claims?data, US Department of Labor UI Claims?data?and Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages?data.

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Finally, we can do the same exercise of using the Washington UI claims by industry to allocate job losses to industries in each state, and then derive the likely number of workers losing EPHI (based on national shares of workers in each industry who receive EPHI). We display these results in Figure A. Unsurprisingly, the hardest-hit states are those with high shares of workers in accommodations and food services, such as Nevada.

Figure A

Estimated new UI claims and EPHI losses for the weeks ending March 21 and March 28, by state

State Total job losses (UI initial claims) EPHI job losses Total job losses as share of employment
Alabama 89,676 36,213 4.5%
Alaska 22,748 9,007 7.0%
Arizona 118,332 46,175 4.1%
Arkansas 35,902 14,817 3.0%
California 1,065,536 420,046 6.1%
Colorado 80,213 31,021 2.9%
Connecticut 58,280 24,213 3.5%
Delaware 29,707 11,738 6.6%
Washington D.C. 28,341 10,475 3.7%
Florida 301,021 113,574 3.4%
Georgia 144,132 57,010 3.2%
Hawaii 57,765 20,010 8.8%
Idaho 45,554 18,088 6.1%
Illinois 292,796 118,274 4.9%
Indiana 207,878 85,916 6.8%
Iowa 100,343 41,987 6.5%
Kansas 78,426 32,645 5.6%
Kentucky 161,573 65,826 8.5%
Louisiana 170,450 66,794 8.9%
Maine 44,732 18,006 7.2%
Maryland 125,418 50,008 4.7%
Massachusetts 329,057 134,480 9.1%
Michigan 440,384 179,806 10.1%
Minnesota 226,334 93,993 7.8%
Mississippi 37,669 14,896 3.3%
Missouri 137,242 55,391 4.9%
Montana 34,244 13,009 7.3%
Nebraska 40,240 16,626 4.1%
Nevada 164,455 53,637 11.8%
New Hampshire 49,332 19,881 7.4%
New Jersey 360,969 147,489 8.9%
New Mexico 45,369 17,473 5.5%
New York 446,737 182,404 4.7%
North Carolina 264,468 105,340 5.9%
North Dakota 18,559 7,638 4.4%
Ohio 459,913 188,639 8.5%
Oklahoma 62,690 24,910 3.9%
Oregon 65,326 25,746 3.4%
Pennsylvania 784,788 326,028 13.3%
Puerto Rico 46,689 18,641 5.3%
Rhode Island 63,503 24,753 13.1%
South Carolina 95,920 37,215 4.5%
South Dakota 8,348 3,375 1.9%
Tennessee 133,588 53,019 4.4%
Texas 431,254 171,073 3.4%
Utah 29,874 12,091 2.0%
Vermont 18,110 7,163 5.8%
Virginia 160,989 63,809 4.1%
Virgin Islands 218 75 0.6%
Washington 320,979 129,725 9.4%
West Virginia 17,601 7,114 2.5%
Wisconsin 161,681 67,101 5.6%
Wyoming 7,014 2,658 2.5%

Note: EPHI losses are estimated UI claims associated with employer-provided health insurance

Source: Author’s analysis of Washington Department of Labor UI claims?data, US Department of Labor UI Claims?data?and Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages?data.

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